To bat or not to bat at Headingley?

Rahul Dravid has won all three tosses in the ODI series against England so far. He put England in twice - at Southampton and Edgbaston - and India lost both games, but they won at Bristol after batting first. The fifth ODI, however, is at Headingley where it might not be a bad idea to chase. This week we look at venues with the biggest differences in run-rates and averages between innings, and where the toss has played a significant role. To keep it current, our tables includes statistics for only the last ten years. The comprehensive tables can be viewed by clicking on the full tables link.

In one-dayers, the toss at Headingley hasn't played a crucial role in the result; the captain who calls correctly has won five matches and lost five, with two ending in washouts. However, look closer and you'll see that the team who bowled first have won nine out of 10 completed games and lost just one. The difference between the average runs per wicket in the second innings and the first is 22.18, the third largest in the table below.

Greatest difference in total average across innings - ODIs since 1997 (qualification: 5 matches)

Mat	Ave1	Ave2	Diff
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff
6	25.70	58.15	32.4441
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua
6	24.21	46.52	22.3085
Headingley, Leeds
12	26.66	48.85	22.1844
Vidarbha C.A. Ground, Nagpur
5	54.27	32.17	22.1051
Warner Park, Basseterre, St Kitts
7	42.31	25.75	16.5640

In the last ODI played at Headingley, in 2006, England set Sri Lanka 322 to win in 50 overs. Sri Lanka needed just 37.3 overs to reach the target and lost only two wickets in the process. All chases, barring another England-Sri Lanka match in 2002 and the South Africa-Australia game during the 1999 World Cup, have been completed with plenty of overs to spare. As a result, the average run-rate in the second innings is a full run greater than the first.

Greatest difference in run-rates across innings - ODIs since 1997 (qualification: 5 matches)

Mat	RR1	RR2	Diff
Willowmoore Park Main Oval, Benoni
11	4.24	5.39	1.1531
VRA Ground, Amstelveen
6	5.66	4.51	1.1416
Warner Park, Basseterre, St Kitts
7	6.13	5.00	1.1278
Headingley, Leeds
12	4.64	5.66	1.0183
Lal Bahadur Shastri Stadium, Hyderabad, Deccan
5	5.73	4.76	0.9722

Queenstown , in New Zealand, presents a watertight case for winning the toss and bowling so far. In all five ODIs played there, the captain winning the toss has bowled and has never lost. In fact, the highest total batting first is New Zealand's 235, in 2004, which Pakistan chased down with six wickets and three overs in hand.

Greatest advantage in winning the toss - ODIs since 1997 (qualification: 5 matches)

Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	%W	%L	Diff
Queenstown Events Centre
5	5	0	0	0	100.00	0.00	100.000
M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore
7	6	1	0	0	85.71	14.28	71.428
Civil Service Cricket Club, Stormont, Belfast
9	7	1	0	0	77.77	11.11	66.666
Jaffery Sports Club Ground, Nairobi
5	4	1	0	0	80.00	20.00	60.00
MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chepauk, Chennai
7	5	1	0	0	71.42	14.28	57.142

Four of the top five venues where winning the toss hasn't had an impact are in India. In fact, in our extended table, eight of the 15 venues where the team winning the toss has lost the match more often than not are located in India.

Greatest disadvantage in winning the toss - ODIs since 1997 (qualification: 5 matches)

Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	%W	%L	Diff
Feroz Shah Kotla, Delhi
6	1	5	0	0	16.66	83.33	-66.666
IPCL Sports Complex Ground, Vadodara
5	1	4	0	0	20.00	80.00	-59.999
Barabati Stadium, Cuttack
5	1	4	0	0	20.00	80.00	-59.999
Brabourne Stadium, Mumbai
5	1	4	0	0	20.00	80.00	-59.999
Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown, St Vincent
11	3	8	0	0	27.27	72.72	-45.454

In Tests, the extent to which a pitch deteriorates is an important factor while deciding whether to bat or bowl. In the table below, the five venues show varying patterns, with the Bangabandhu National Stadium in Dhaka averaging 57 per wicket in the final innings compared to 22 in the first, while the Premadasa in Colombo averages 56.71 in the second innings but only 27 in the fourth. Two venues - Napier in New Zealand and the MA Aziz Stadium in Chittagong - exhibit a steady decline from first to fourth innings, a clear case for batting first. At Chittagong the average drops from 40.5 in the first innings to 17.25 in the fourth, while at Napier it slides from 40 in the first to 19.20 in the final innings.

Greatest difference in total average across innings - Tests since 1997 (qualification: 3 matches)

Mat	Ave1	Ave2	Ave3	Ave4	Diff
Bir Shrestha Shahid Ruhul Amin Stadium, Chittagong
3	32.25	48.20	22.50	66.75	44.2500
Bangabandhu National Stadium, Dhaka
10	22.29	40.56	18.51	57.00	38.4839
Sardar Patel (Gujarat) Stadium, Motera, Ahmedabad
4	59.00	28.62	31.00	46.23	30.3750
R.Premadasa Stadium, Khettarama, Colombo
4	35.78	56.71	39.70	29.70	27.0143
Multan Cricket Stadium
5	38.24	49.69	28.08	23.00	26.6977

In Tests, however, the toss has played a crucial role at Headingley. Of the nine Tests since 1997, seven have been won by the team winning the toss. The win-loss record when a team has batted first is 5-2, while the corresponding record while bowling first is 2-0.

Greatest advantage in winning the toss - Tests since 1997 (qualification: 3 matches)

Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	%W	%L	Diff
Goodyear Park, Bloemfontein
3	3	0	0	0	100.00	0.00	100.000
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street
3	3	0	0	0	100.00	0.00	100.000
Headingley, Leeds
9	7	2	0	0	77.77	22.22	55.555
R Premadasa Stadium, Khettarama, Colombo
4	2	0	0	2	50.00	0.00	50.000
P Saravanamuttu Stadium, Colombo
6	4	1	0	1	66.66	16.66	50.000

Melbourne and Perth feature in our table of venues where winning the toss doesn't have a positive effect on the outcome of a Test - only because Australia have won almost everything at home since 1997, irrespective of the toss. They have won eight Tests at the MCG since losing to England in 1998 and eight at the WACA since losing to West Indies in 1997.

Greatest disadvantage in winning the toss - Tests since 1997 (qualification: 3 matches)

Mat	Won	Lost	Tied	Draw	%W	%L	Diff
Bir Shrestha Shahid Ruhul Amin Stadium, Chittagong
3	0	2	0	1	0.00	66.66	-66.666
Arbab Niaz Stadium, Peshawar
5	1	3	0	1	20.00	60.00	-39.999
Melbourne Cricket Ground
10	3	6	0	1	30.00	60.00	-29.999
W.A.C.A. Ground, Perth
11	3	6	0	2	27.27	54.54	-27.272
St George's Park, Port Elizabeth
8	2	4	0	2	25.00	50.00	-24.999