Protect the leader, prepare for the future

In the past Australia's selectors have been criticised for resting and rotating their fast bowlers during home one-day tournaments. This season they should be condemned if they don't. The lack of spin depth is the most public concern since the 2-0 victory over Sri Lanka, but there is an underlying worry over the inexperience of the fast-bowling stocks.

Brett Lee was superb as he held together Australia's attack during the short series, but his assignment becomes much tougher, especially if an edgy or unpredictable wrist-spinner has to be nursed, during the four-Test campaign against India. The visiting batsmen will ensure more days in the field than Sri Lanka's death-or-glory collection, and Lee's role has become so important that Andrew Hilditch, the selection chairman, must seriously consider not unwrapping him until Boxing Day.

Long-term Test progress is far more important at this stage of Australia's cycle than limited-overs gratification. If Lee is injured during the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy, like he was before the contest in New Zealand in February, the senior fast man will be Stuart Clark, who has played 11 Tests. Quick bowlers get hurt and Australia's group faces a stress-fracturing load over the next year with series against India, Pakistan, West Indies, Bangladesh, New Zealand and South Africa.

Reliable back-up will be required and the claims of the men in waiting are largely unknown. Three of the five major contenders have not played a Test - Nathan Bracken, the most qualified, appeared in the last of his five in 2005 - and New Zealand's visit for four limited-overs matches is when the selectors need to discover more about them. Fielding a second-string attack is unnecessary, but the opportunity to employ some fringe players for valuable work experience should not be missed.

Australia's strong loyalty programme means Ben Hilfenhaus is next in line for a one-day appointment, and he should replace Lee for ten days in December so he can perform in every game against Daniel Vettori's men. Hilfenhaus, 24, filled in for Shaun Tait in South Africa and India, playing one Twenty20, and was called into the Test XII for the opening match against Sri Lanka.

His value remains high despite a slow start to the domestic season - he has seven wickets at 56.00 in three first-class fixtures - but the team has to know soon whether he can swing the ball consistently at high pace in international conditions. If he can move it like he did for Tasmania last season and in his only one-day international, he is likely to open the bowling in Tests during an injury-hit point over the next 12 months.

Tait, who started his second first-class match of the season on Friday, is not going to prove anything in the shortened versions of the game except how he can re-injure himself by running in at full tilt. Along with Lee, he is the bowler who needs to be managed most carefully - Cricket Australia stepped in to stop him facing Western Australia last week - and it's time he added to the two Tests he played way back in 2005.

South Australia start a Pura Cup match in Perth on the day the Chappell-Hadlee Series begins and it would be of more value for Tait to get through another four-day match. Proving his fitness is of greater importance than scaring New Zealand batsmen for ten overs in trivial contests.

Barring dates with physiotherapists, the top five spots are settled, but it is essential for the next group to be tested so a large core can develop. Bracken, Ashley Noffke and Doug Bollinger are the current contenders for the group, with Jason Gillespie hovering in case things go really wrong.

The emergence of Mitchell Johnson, who was capable as the third Test wheel against Sri Lanka, has pushed Bracken down the list, but he remains an outstanding one-day performer and will have plenty of opportunities over the home summer to show off. However, he has been out-bowled at New South Wales by Bollinger, who has an amazing 26 wickets at 12.50 in three Pura Cup games, including 12 in the win over Tasmania. Bollinger, a 26-year-old left-armer with an unrefined action, would be worth trialling in the Twenty20 international on December 11 if a hamstring injury is still troubling Noffke.

A shorter run-up and re-modelled gather have helped Noffke to four five-wicket hauls in the past two months and he already has 27 victims at 16.40. Throw in 448 first-class runs at 64.00 and he might have a chance of squeezing out the incumbent James Hopes as an allrounder. Crucially, he stepped up when Michael Kasprowicz and Andy Bichel were injured, taking ownership of the Queensland attack and performing consistently. In the current bowling climate he deserves an audition - even a short one - to confirm his potential for a more serious role.

Anything that eases the risks for Lee is worth a try. Lee bowled 9.1 overs in New South Wales' one-day match against Victoria on Wednesday but has been rested for the Pura Cup game. It is a sensible policy that has to be expanded throughout the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy. With some careful experimenting, Australia can turn some future maybes into certainties.