What holds the greater weight of argument: that New Zealand do well enough
to even have a side that, for the most part, plays consistently
competitive cricket despite an entire population that is a third of
Dhaka's alone? Or, that given the quality of players they have produced,
they are actually underachieving? Stuck somewhere between those two
questions, it never seems to have been any other way for them.
Here they are in the knock-out stages of yet another World Cup. Five times
they have made it to the semis but never any further, beaten, on occasions,
by a better side and on other occasions by themselves. With this side
those questions have been most resonant. If they lose to South Africa
on Friday in Dhaka, it won't be a surprise. If they win, it will be an
upset, but a real surprise, or a shock? Not really. In any case, the
attention will fall on South Africa.
There is no question New Zealand have players here who can change games.
In their batting order are some of the cleanest, sweetest ball-hitters in
world cricket; Martin Guptill's straight driving has been one of the
pleasures of the group stages. Jesse Ryder, Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor,
Scott Styris and Jacob Oram should always be a threat.
Few fast bowlers as initially unsuited to these conditions can have
progressed so much individually as Tim Southee, the influence of Allan
Donald as bowling coach quite apparent. Southee is probably the least
noticed fast bowling success of the tournament. Others have chipped in
around him.
They now have back their captain, one of the best allrounders in the game
and a figure with the authority and stability most captains dream of. The
majority of them field as electrically as eels.
And still it has been a campaign befitting them so far, unwilling to
resolve those basic questions. They were awesome against Pakistan,
obviously with the bat, but also in the field. The minnows were
dispatched with greater comfort than some other teams were able to manage.
But losses to Australia and Sri Lanka were so complete that there looked
nothing of the true contenders about them.
In a way they have swung as much as Pakistan do, and more than this
England team. Sometimes they remind you of Mark Greatbatch's withering
assessment late last year that some of the players think they are better
than they actually are. And there remains around
them talk of player power, which never has beneficial consequences.
It is the batting on which the heaviest burden rests, for that is where
expectations should be highest. The numbers of Taylor, McCullum and
Guptill stand up well from the group stages - they've all got over 220
runs and average 81.66, 59.75 and 55.5 respectively - but in only one big
game can it be said to have come together the way they want it to.
"We played our best game against Pakistan when the batting fired when we
got a guy get through to a hundred, with a couple of crucial partnerships
through it," Daniel Vettori said. "We've been at our worst when those
things haven't happened. That will be the key to our success.
"If the top five perform it will give us a chance. We've got a very good fielding unit
and a solid bowling attack so if we can complement that with a good
performance with the bat we will be in with a chance. "
It is the potential of that top order that New Zealand are waiting on,
that might take them from where they are stuck, to a different plane
altogether. There isn't frustration at them not having done more so far,
Vettori said, but expectation.
"It's not so much the frustration as much as looking forward to the next
game and realizing these guys can do it," he said. "They are extremely
talented and if you look at their records, as they stand alone, they are
pretty good. What better time to rectify a couple of tough performances
than now? We've seen the game plan that works against Pakistan, able to
build a total and be able to unleash at the end. If we get a guy like
Taylor, Styris or Oram in those last ten overs with wickets in hand, then
we know we can be dangerous."
Friday would be a good time for them not simply to know that they can be
dangerous, but to actually be so. Else the status quo remains.