India's chances and the quirks of the tie-breaker rules (27 May 1999)

27 May 1999

India's chances and the quirks of the tie-breaker rules

Vasudevan Mangalam for CricInfo

After watching that scintillating, mind-boggling performance by Saurav and Rahul on Wednesday, a performance that dwarfed even that 237 run partnership between Sachin and Rahul against Kenya, I spent a little time analyzing the renewed situation from the point of view of India's chances in this wonderfully unpredictable World Cup tournament. Their chances are good; I would say very good on an optimistic day. After being down in the dumps with two losses, of which one against a weak team they could not afford to lose to, India has emerged with serious potentials. Let us go through different scenarios.

All teams in Group A has exactly one watch remaining. India vs England, South Africa vs Zimbabwe, Kenya vs Sri Lanka. To simplify matters I will discount ties and no results.

If India beats England, no matter what happens in other matches, India will advance to super six. Reason? As Sri Lanka can have at most 4 points and Kenya at most 2, we have three teams (India, England and Zimbabwe) after two spots. If Zimbabwe loses to South Africa, they are out; South Africa, India and England will then advance, taking with them 4 points, 2 points and 0 points respectively. If Zimbabwe beats South Africa we have three teams who have beaten each other, all with 6 points. Now, with -.241 net run rate, even if they demolish South Africa, they can't hope to catch up with India who has a net run rate of 1.293 which will go up after they beat England. Zimbabwe may catch up with England if England loses badly to India and Zimbabwe beats South Africa. Most likely scenario, then, is SA, IND, ENG with 4,2,0.

Now assume India loses to England. If Zimbabwe beats South Africa, India is out. Otherwise, England will have the second spot with 8 points and will advance with 2 points. For the rest, everything depends on the match between Sri Lanka and Kenya. If Kenya beats Sri Lanka, India is out because the third spot will then go to Zimbabwe who, along with India, has 4 points and has beaten India. If Sri Lanka beats Kenya, all is well. We have three teams who have beaten each other and by net run rate India will advance. India will have to lose to England extremely badly and Sri Lanka should beat Kenya extremely well. If you spent some time calculating the actual numbers, you will see what the chances are.

For example, if the winning team bats first in both cases, the combined victory margin will have to be close to 500 for Sri Lanka to push India out and claim a super six spot. If both England and Sri Lanka make 325 runs each, then if India and Kenya can make over 75 each, India is in. Zimbabwe's chances are even less, as their net run rate after losing to SA will be lower than the current -.241. For India to lower their NRR to that level, India has to lose by 313 runs minimum.

I do not know if it occurred to you, but if India loses to England and Zimbabwe loses to SA, a very bizarre situation arises. Now, it is not unusual for a team's chances to be affected by the outcome of another match. Normally what happens is the following. Team A is very interested in a match between teams B and C because if B wins B is in, A is out and if C wins A is in, B is out. The fate of C is independent of the outcome of the match. In all these years, I have never encountered a scenario where the fortunes of A and D are depended on a match between B and C, a match that has no influence on the fate of either B or C. If B wins A is out, D is in and if C wins D is out, A is in! And in both cases B and C are both out! That is exactly what is going to happen here. If Kenya beats Sri Lanka, there will be two teams, India and Zimbabwe, with four points and as Zimbabwe beat India they will get the third spot. If Sri Lanka beats Kenya, there will be three teams who have beaten one another with 4 points and hence the ranking will be determined by NRR. India will get the third spot then.

To summarise, India will miss out only if India loses to England and one of the two things happen - either Kenya beats Sri Lanka or Zimbabwe beats South Africa.

Now, I estimate the probability of India beating England as about 0.6. My estimates of South Africa beating England and Sri Lanka beating Kenya are 0.95 and 0.8 respectively. So the probability that India will advance is estimated to be 0.6 + 0.4*0.95*0.8 = 0.904. If you do not agree with my estimates, just substitute your estimated chances into this formula to get the final probability.

I can safely say that this World Cup was the most exciting tournament I have ever watched since 1983.

Vasudevan Mangalam, Curtin University of Technology, GPO Box U1987, Perth WA 6845, Australia.